Forecast 2002 Next Move?
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What's the future hold?

Airports expansions and building safer schools, architects say

By Ellen Hickok-Wall
Daily Reporter Staff

What's the future hold?Futurist David Zach, who is on the board of Wisconsin Chapter of the American Institute of Architects, uses current trends to help businesses plan for the future.

But Zach's title is misleading. He doesn't predict at all.

"As a futurist, I'm eminently qualified to tell you that we don't know what the future has in store," Zach said. "My job is more to help people understand what's going on right now."

By doing that, he said, he can help architects figure out what features to include in designs.

Zach, who serves as professional affiliate representative of the AIA-Wisconsin Chapter, said one of the first things he discusses with clients is need.

"There's a big difference between a fad and a trend," Zach said. "Fads tend to be event driven. Trends tend to be need driven."

It's the need-driven variety that architects should respond to, he said.

"They're natural futurists," Zach said of architects. "They build buildings with long lifespans.

"Architecture is a wonderful field, because designers are dealing with buildings - and how people want to use them," he said.

Fads vs. trends

Zach said responses to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks would be fad-driven. But schools beefing up security measures would be trend-driven, because there have been so many incidents of violence in schools.

Thomas Cox of the Hoffman Corp. in Appleton said his firm specializes in educational facilities.

"Safety as a design determiner is going to take another step since the Sept. 11 issues," he said. "But security issues have been a trend probably for the last five years because of school shootings."

Cox expects school building to slow down "because most everybody has taken advantage of state funding initiatives."

He predicts that the softening of the market will prevail through the first half of 2002.

"My crystal ball is telling me that after about the first half of next year, I think we'll see things get relatively back to normal again around the nation," Cox said.

The softer market is providing a comfort zone for Quorum Architects Inc. of Milwaukee, according to Allyson Nemec, an architect there.

"We've been pretty hectic for a couple years," she said. "And we're riding a nice trend of over-construction."

Nemec said associates at Quorum are settling down to normal hours and a normal workflow.

"Some firms have slowed down and others have picked up," she said.

Airport plans taking flight

While the market appears to be stabilizing for traditional construction, there's big work ahead at airports throughout the state.

Waukesha County Airport recently announced plans to spend $52 million, said Keith Markano, airport manager, who said the work is need driven.

"Businesses have been expanding into the county over the years," Markano said. "And about half of the projects are bringing the airport up to current safety standards."

Markano said the airport's expansion plans is not a response to people turning to private aircraft following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

"The airport saw an increase in October in fractional ownership of private planes, which is a way for corporations to consider an aircraft without having a flight department," he said, adding that it's possible that resulted from the attacks.

"That wasn't the driver behind our master plan, but will it have an effect on the airport? In all probability, it will. The events are so recent, who knows what will pan out."

Tom Miller, airport director at Austin Straubel International Airport in Green Bay, echoed Markano's words when he said it's too soon to know whether airport security requirements will change because of Sept. 11.

"I think the Federal Aviation Administration is still formulating guidelines for airports as we speak," he said.

Miller will oversee nearly $20 million worth of work next year on runway and taxi systems plus expansion of terminal concourses, which will take about a year to complete, he said.

Peter Drahn, airport manager of the Dane County Regional Airport, said his company will open up bids in the fall for a series of ongoing projects that add up to about $30 million.

Some of the expansion is related to corporate travel, but it's attributable to growth as opposed to the Sept. 11 attacks, he said, because the work has been planned for a long time.



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