Our Crystal Ball

By Chris Thompson
Editor at Large

Chris Thompson Editor at Large

The construction industry has been on a roll for 10 years now, and it doesn't look like a simple changing of the calendar is going to do much to stop it.

Just pick a topic - development, legislation, union activity, association initiatives or project volume. Wherever you look, there's something going on.

The industry in the last year teemed with development issues: Brownfields' funding grew, Smart Growth lurked on the horizon and Comm 83 burst onto the scene only to be tucked away in a Madison courtroom. Industry lobbyists laid siege to the state Capitol, pushing for approval of issues ranging from design/build to apprenticeship tax credits.

"Yeah," you might be thinking, "none of that matters unless it messes with my bottom line."

Well it does.

All it takes is a quick call to Mike Fabishak, executive director of the Associated General Contractors of Greater Milwaukee, to learn that the state's construction volume is on course to break the $10 billion barrier - a feat never before accomplished.

So what's ahead for 2001? If we were to make a forecast (and we will because we can), we'd turn our attention first to the state Legislature.

• Design/build legislation will flop again because nobody can seem to reach consensus.
  
  
• The apprenticeship tax credit will pass, although the original plan could be compromised to garner union support.
  
  
• The tax exemption for nonprofit construction materials will fly through the Capitol because, from what we hear, the current law is ... well, stupid.

Our crystal ball also tells us that Comm 83 will survive the courtroom scrutiny and, frankly, we agree with the Department of Commerce that the rule won't increase urban sprawl.

And as for that all-important bottom line, we wouldn't even venture a guess as to how each of you will do in the coming year, but we do agree with Fabishak that statewide construction numbers in 2001 will pick up where this year left off. 2002, on the other hand, could mark a downturn for the industry.

But why take our word for it? We've assembled, in the following pages, a blow-by-blow forecast of what the industry can expect in 2001. We spoke with many of your colleagues to get their take on what the new year holds because, after all, it's in your hands to make the predictions a reality.

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