Unscientific evidence points to active,
but not record-making, year

By Dick Snow

Dick Snow

We've been subjected in the past few months to poll upon poll, all rightly saying election results were too close to call.

Well, 2001 is not too close to call. Based on unscientific evidence, we present our optimistic forecast that 2001 will be a pretty good year for the construction community - not a record year but an active year.

A jump in inflation, which would send the dollar totals higher, could make 2001 seem like a record year. But we predict that actual work in 2001 will mirror this year's volume, not much of change in activity since the late 1980s.

The nonscientific evidence:

• Ongoing work - The Milwaukee Art Museum addition; State Fair Park rehabilitation and expansion; Miller Park finishing work and County Stadium demolition; and University of Wisconsin-Madison construction.
  
  
• More ongoing work - Sizable residential developments in the suburban areas and condo conversions in urban areas; more big retail boxes and retail rehabilitation; Gimbels/Marshall Field's building conversion in downtown Milwaukee; continued renewal in Madison's Capitol Square area; and education facilities and hospital expansions in progress.
  
  
• New work - Milwaukee's Technical High School; 6th Street viaduct; Lambeau Field (or whatever its name will be); Camp Randall; new, small and medium-sized motel/hotel venues throughout the state; a heavy dose of roadwork throughout the state; hospital expansions; more new retail boxes; more than $200 million in various public and private school work announced or assured by recent referendums; a major makeover for Milwaukee's Auditorium (whatever it's named).
  
  
• Additional new work - Residential projects/developments both urban and suburban; major retail rehabilitation activity; higher educational facilities; upgrading of sewerage treatment facilities, including MMSD, throughout Wisconsin; at least two new Indian gambling venues; yes, churches and several new golf courses.
  
  
• More work - A new federal post office and a publishing facility for Journal Com-munications as well as upgrades for airports throughout Wisconsin.
  The aforementioned projects represent just a few categories for 2001 construction activity, all collated unscientifically without resorting to heavy-duty research work.

More 'robins' for spring 2001

And here are some other signs:

• The agate type on work contemplated, mostly public work, in The Daily Reporter continues to occupy a lot of space.
  
  
• Just scan the agate columns, multiply by six or seven or more, and figure out the amount of private work that will occur next year.
  
  
• Check out the bid lists, too. Most of the larger general contractors aren't listed because they have backlogs in the private sector, generally more profitable work.
  
  
• Analyze the large movement of project managers from one contractor to another and you'll discover it's driven by new market activities.
  
  
• Call your favorite builder's exchange and you'll find the bins are reasonably full for this time of the year, indicative of work ahead.
  
  
• The general tenor of business activity remains fairly strong, despite the often violent shakes in the stock market.
  
  
• Unfortunately, the loss of manufacturing jobs usually means facilities for manufacturing require conversion activity. Wisconsin is no different than a lot of states in this regard.
  
  
• School boards throughout the state will be emboldened by the 72 percent success rate in the recent elections; they will come back with their failed referendum initiatives as well as some new proposals considered too iffy to offer on Nov. 7.
  
  
• Addenda and change orders to already-mandated or contracted work will increase. You can take that wisdom to the bank.
  
  
• Because continued gridlock on the national political scene will adversely affect the "good" work of the federal regulatory agencies, more new projects will receive easier approvals.
  
  
• The larder of "pork" generated by Congress in the form of federal and/or federally assisted projects remains full to the brim. Some of this will undoubtedly reach Wisconsin, though not as much as other states with less timid, more so inclined and motivated representatives than we have, will receive.
  
  
• Finally, there will be the surfacing of a plethora of new construction projects not even contemplated now.

In summary, there are ample encouraging indicators out there of a decent 2001 for the Wisconsin construction family. Do-it-yourself forecasting ... If you're not sure of or disbelieve the foregoing, here are some handy forecasting tips you can do on your own:

1. Flip a coin.
   
   
2. Hold a moistened finger to the wind.
   
   
3. Go to Las Vegas. If you return even a small winner or break even, it'll be a good sign.
   
   
4. Check to see if the robins appear or the swallows get back to Capistrano earlier than usual. Do stay tuned!

Dick Snow, the ultimate insider, has been a leading figure in Wisconsin's construction community for decades. We, and Mr. Snow, invite your response. Call us at 414-276-0273, ext. 112, or e-mail.

---

| Editor's Note | Story Index | Sites of Interest | Books |
| Special Sections Main | Daily Reporter Main |

Questions or help? Drop us a line

© 2001, Daily Reporter Publishing Company, All Rights Reserved.